Elon Musk’s odds of winning lawsuit against OpenAI are slim, Kalshi traders say

A combination photo shows CEO of OpenAI Sam Altman (L) on April 28, 2026 and Elon Musk on April 29, 2026 during the trial in Elon Musk's lawsuit over OpenAI for-profit conversion at a federal courthouse in Oakland, California, U.S.Manuel Orbegozo | ReutersTraders on Kalshi say Elon Musk has roughly a 36% chance to win his case against OpenAI, marking one of the lowest probabilities since the trial began a week ago in Oakland, California. The billionaire sued OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman, along with the company's president Greg Brockman, in 2024 claiming they failed to keep the company on a nonprofit status. OpenAI's attorney cross-examined Musk on Thursday, asking about the capped nature of Microsoft's investments in OpenAI, his participation in negotiations about the company's structure, and whether he knew about the OpenAI nonprofit's recent initiatives. Musk said he did not know what was happening at OpenAI. Last week, predictions of Musk winning his case against OpenAI peaked at nearly 60% but by Friday afternoon, it plummeted to roughly 50%. A filing Sunday revealed that Musk texted Brockman about a settlement just days before the trial began.Musk had donated roughly $38 million to the AI company and argues the amount