It’s Sinking In That Fossil Fuel Demand Won’t Grow Forever

Climate activists, oil executives, atmospheric scientists, and investors are all trying to make sense of the same picture using completely different language and with vastly different priorities. And this week was a particularly striking example of this split screen. Policymakers and climate advocates gathered at a global summit to phase out fossil fuels. Meanwhile oil and gas producers are trying to maximize their returns in this quickly evolving world. The two groups seemingly have little overlap. But both climate advocates and sophisticated oil producers are now operating from the shared premise that unbounded fossil fuel demand growth will not continue forever. We see the shift happening in the electricity sector already. For oil, it’s slower-moving and obscured by geopolitics. But the question remains: how do you respond to a market that may be smaller or flatter and certainly will be less predictable? To answer these questions, we didn’t see bold proclamations from climate advocates or oil producers this week. But, in 2026, the most telling moves are often made without fanfare. This week’s summit, held in the coastal city of Santa Marta, Colombia, was the culmination of years of planning with representatives of nearly 60 countries gathered for talks on