Rousey vs. Carano odds: Why Ronda Rousey is big favorite against Gina Carano

May 1, 2026, 7:31 p.m. ETMMA trailblazers Ronda Rousey and Gina Carano are coming out of retirement to put on what they suggest will be a highly entertaining, maybe even epic, fight.But oddsmakers suggest there’s little doubt about the outcome of their bout May 15 at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California, that will be livestreamed by Netflix.Rousey is a massive favorite based on the opening moneyline, with BetMGM installing her as a -650 favorite and Carano as a +425 underdog. That indicates Rousey has an 86.7% probability of winning the fight.Why is Rousey such an overwhelming favorite? There’s more than one factor.Name recognition: Ronda Rousey has massive followingMost Valuable Promotions, co-founded by Jake Paul, is promoting this fight. At the first press conference, Paul mispronounced Carano’s name, as if he'd never heard it.Much of the public still knows and adores Rousey, who has retained the brand name. To some degree the former UFC champion still is regarded as a heroic figure. By contrast, Carano fought in relative obcurity, before the UFC welcomed female fighters.All of the above likely will drive bettors to wager on Rousey.Risk: Sports books reducing it with Ronda Rousey as odds favoriteTaking too many wagers on